Rangkuman berita: Mike Novogratz Warns of 'Minsky Moment' Amid Economic Shifts and Bitcoin's Role

United States - Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, recently discussed the current economic climate in an interview on CNBC. He highlighted the impact of tariffs and political uncertainty with President Trump's return, suggesting that these factors are reshaping the global security apparatus. Despite equities being down roughly 10% year-to-date, Novogratz believes this is insufficient given the scale of global economic shifts.

Novogratz explained that bitcoin typically performs well amid macroeconomic uncertainty unless risk appetite completely evaporates. He outlined two major narratives driving bitcoin: the macro story, reflected in gold's recent rally, and the adoption story, which is still in its early stages. He also noted that bitcoin is beginning to trade more independently of U.S. equities.

Novogratz warned that the U.S. is starting to behave like an emerging market, with rising interest rates and a weakening dollar. He referenced economist Hyman Minsky, suggesting that the U.S. could be approaching a 'Minsky Moment' where deficits and debt levels finally matter. According to Novogratz, markets are signaling that the Trump-led policy push is too aggressive and unsustainable, with even modest increases in treasury yields having massive implications for the national debt.

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Apa yang dimaksud dengan 'Minsky Moment' menurut Mike Novogratz?

'Minsky Moment' adalah saat di mana defisit dan tingkat utang mulai berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pasar.

Bagaimana tarif mempengaruhi keamanan global menurut Novogratz?

Tarif berperan dalam membentuk kembali struktur keamanan global dan menciptakan ketidakpastian di pasar.

Apa dua narasi utama yang mendorong bitcoin saat ini?

Dua narasi utama adalah cerita makro yang terlihat dari kenaikan harga emas dan cerita adopsi bitcoin yang masih dalam tahap awal.

Mengapa Novogratz mengatakan bahwa AS mulai berperilaku seperti negara berkembang?

Novogratz berpendapat bahwa AS mengalami peningkatan suku bunga dan pelemahan dolar, yang merupakan tanda-tanda perilaku negara berkembang.

Apa dampak dari kenaikan suku bunga terhadap utang nasional AS?

Kenaikan suku bunga dapat menyebabkan biaya utang yang lebih tinggi, yang berdampak besar pada anggaran pemerintah dan program penghematan.

Rangkuman Berita: Mike Novogratz Warns of 'Minsky Moment' Amid Economic Shifts and Bitcoin's Role

To analyze the current economic environment and its impact on markets, particularly focusing on bitcoin and the potential for a 'Minsky Moment'.

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